Kagame and Kabila hold the keys

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) seems to be on the brink of slipping back into the kind of devastating international war that raged from 1998 to 2003. At the time, Uganda, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Namibia, Burundi and Angola were sucked into the fighting.

According to the UN in mid November, the conflict pitting the Congolese army against renegade general Laurent Nkunda's National Congress for the Defence of the People (NCPD), a Tutsi-dominated rebel outfit, had displaced more than 250,000 people since August. Some 12,000 people have fled to Uganda and their number is expected to grow. There is a threat of imminent hunger and famine.

Ugandan security officials worry that members of armed bands from the DRC could come to Uganda, pretending to seek refuge. Moreover, violence in the DRC looks certain to complicate, if not prolong, peace talks between the Government of Uganda and the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), a rebel outfit that may take advantage of the fighting to re-arm and abduct more civilians. And though another Ugandan rebel group, the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), has announced the will to engage in peace talks, there is no guarantee it will do so. The eastern Congo is the ADF’s tactical base. On top of security worries, there are economic ones. Tourism in Uganda is likely to suffer. National Parks, which are close to the border, are favourite destinations for foreign tourists because of gorilla populations. These parks are likely to become no-go areas with fighting nearby. Moreover, Uganda was supposed to start producing oil next year, but that looks increasingly unlikely, given that some of the deposits lie across the border. Trade between the two countries has significantly dropped.

The turmoil in the DRC, moreover, may slow down Uganda’s progress towards democracy. President Yoweri Museveni has been in power for 22 years; and he will have an excuse to ask for another term in 2011, ostensibly to guide the country through neighbourhood troubles. In view of DRC chaos, Ugandans will be paying less attention to domestic politics. It does not look like international conferences and summits will resolve the problems. Fighting in the DRC went on unabated in spite of the leaders of Africa’s Great Lakes region calling for an immediate ceasefire and the creation of humanitarian corridors. Meeting in Nairobi, heads of state urged that existing agreements on disarming groups (including the LRA) be implemented and the UN peacekeeping mandate be streng­thened – with no result.

In early November, Rwanda slammed international efforts to resolve the crisis speaking of a “misconception”. Kigali denies the internationally prevailing assumption according to which the crisis is a matter between Rwanda and the DRC. While Rwandan President Paul Kagame insists the war is an internal matter of the DRC, analysts say that, without his support, it will be impossible to make Nkunda stop fighting. Kagame denies he is actively supporting his fellow-Tutsi Nkunda, but it is widely believed that his government does sponsor Nkunda out of frustration with DRC President Laurent Kabila. Kabila is perceived to refuse to disarm Rwandan Hutu militias that allegedly include perpetrators of the 1994 genocide against Tutsis on the territory of his country.

The DRC has not had an effective government for decades. The situation is compounded by vast mineral resources in Congo’s unmanaged parts. A plethora of foreign and armed groups are exploiting them. The factors that fueled the 1998 war and sucked in Uganda are still present today. Uganda indicated the ADF as the main reason for deploying in Congo then, and they are still active today. Moreover, the LRA has set up a camp on the border between DRC and Sudan.

The UN peacekeeping mission MONUC is generally considered toothless and bureaucratic. It found a worthy cousin in Congo’s poorly-paid and ill-disciplined army, which is accused of human-rights violations, looting and corruption. President Kagame and Kabila hold the keys to resolving the crisis by peaceful means. Kagame must prevail on Nkunda to negotiate with the DRC and reach a compromise; whereas Kabila must pacify eastern DRC and address Rwanda’s security concerns over Hutu militias.