Dangerous tragedy

Events in Pakistan since Spring 2007 might be compared to a governmentally arranged stage tragedy – with a poor script, dismal directorship and untalented actors. The plot is about the constitutional values of a country of 165 million people after six decades of independence, with Islam as its founding myth and ideology of reference. A country, in which the military dominates society and where people from all walks of life are proud to be the only nuclear-armed Muslim nation. When the curtain will finally fall, whether parliamentary elections are held or not, everyone will be a loser – both in Pakistan and among the international audience.

In July, the storming of the Red Mosque in central Islamabad showed just how far the Talebanisation of Pakistan had progressed. Pronouncing the state of emergency on 3 November, General Musharraf argued the army would henceforth be in a better position to fight terrorists. He also claimed that he had to prevent nuclear weapons from falling into the hands of Islamists. According to Musharraf, Pakistan was threatening to fail as a state, and he had to save the nation from political suicide. What a sobering confession! When this autocrat seized power in his first military coup in 1999, he had promised to prevent Pakistan from becoming another Somalia.

Pakistanis are not fooled, however. Obviously, the real reason for emergency rule is Musharraf’s fear of losing power. The Supreme Court was on the verge of ruling his re-election in October invalid, before he suspended the Court. Ever since, events have been fast and dramatic. Old foes are joining hands in a bid for power; and behind the scenes the United States is struggling to maintain influence in Pakistan. On behalf of Musharraf, thousands have been arrested – the very people who should be allies in the fight against Islamist extremism and the Taleban: representatives of civil society, the media and the judiciary. In the meantime, he is reaching out to Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, former prime ministers, whose corrupt era he had supposedly ended in 1999. As D+C was going to print, however, the two seemed to be teaming up against him.

Politically-aware elites in Pakistan are frustrated, contemplating the weakness of Parliament and the repercussions of dynastic politics. They acknowledge, with a degree of self-criticism, that democratic self-renewal according to the country’ s model of the 1990s will not help. At the moment, no responsible new ruling class is in sight. It seems that more than 30 years of martial law resulted in an almost irreversibly militarised society.

Pakistan’s very identity is increasingly being questioned, and people are calling for a radical new beginning. Many would also appreciate a new start in European foreign policy, which neglected Pakistan for many years. Europe must consider Pakistan in the context of a coherent Asia strategy – not least, because anti-Americanism has become something like Pakistan’s second state religion.

The only forces able to manage a return to democracy and a detour from creeping Islamisation are those who vehemently demand the rule of law and an independent judiciary. The political awakening of students at non-state universities, for instance, and various islands of civil society – though elitist they may be – deserve to be encouraged. They need inspiration to join forces and actively participate in a political transformation. For too long, these matters were neglected by international development diplomacy.

International talks should move beyond the routine, and take into account a realistic view of the situation. The anchor country concept drafted by Germany’s Development Ministry some years ago could serve as a useful base. It considers Pakistan one of several particularly influential countries. In any case, General-President Musharraf must not be allowed to argue with impunity, that “first comes Pakistan and then comes democracy”. This is a key region of any emerging new world order, and something has gone terribly wrong with democracy promotion.